Conditional Probability


This entry is part 2 of 6 in the series Probability

Let’s discuss how to calculate probability for two or more dependent events. This type of probability is known as conditional probability. Conditional probability refers to the probability of an event occurring given that another event has already occurred. Two events are dependent if the occurrence of one event changes the probability of the other event.

Imagine you have two events. The first event is drawing an king from a standard deck of playing cards, and the second event is drawing another king from the same deck. There are four kings in a deck of 52 cards. For the first draw, the chance of getting an king is four out of 52 or 7.8 percent. But for the second draw, the probability of getting a king changes because you’ve removed a card from the deck. Now, there are three aces in a deck of 51 cards. For the second draw, the chance of getting an ace is three out of 51 or about 5.8 percent. When we are talking about the probability of an event given that another event has already happened, we are dealing with conditional probability.

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